National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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877FXUS61 KGYX 091046AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME646 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024.SYNOPSIS...High pressure offshore will maintain very warm and humidconditions for much of the week. A stationary front waveringover the Northeast will provide a focus for showers and stormsTuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A trough will approach fromthe west Wednesday transporting remnant moisture from Beryl intothe region Wednesday into Thursday. Thunderstorms are againpossible Friday as a stalled remains over the region. A few morescattered showers and storms are expected over the weekend.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

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640 AM...Just some minor changes, mostly based on current obs,to temps/sky. The small cluster of convection moving into theHudson valley S of KALB, looks like it`s already weakening, andthe HRRR supports this, and other wise it looks like convectiondevelops over the CWA around mid afternoon.Previously...Most morning fog should burn off quickly thismorning, but may linger into mid morning along the mid coast.Otherwise today looks to start sunny, but will become partlysunny this afternoon. It will be hot, and the sea breeze will bestuck along the immediate coast until late today so highs awaythe beaches and outside the mtns will run in the upper 80s tolows 90s, with heat index values in the 90-95 in many areas andinto the upper 90s in SE NH, where the heat advisory has beenissued. A weak upper level trough will push a cold south intothe far N zone this afternoon, and this will set off sctSHRA/TSRA. Theres plenty of sfc based instability, with CAPEsrunning in the 1000-2000 j/kg range . The trough will wipe out alot of the capping this afternoon, so this will allow theconvection to flourish in spots this afternoon. Could see somestrong winds, and definitely some torrential downpours where anystorms occur. The most likely area for severe storms will be Sof the mtns, but TSRA will be possible anywhere this afternoon.

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&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...Probably by around 00Z the severe threat will be over but a fewSHRA/TSRA will be possible through part of the evening, but willwind down toward midnight. That cold front will not make it farfrom the intl border, and it will be a warm and very humidnight, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s in all but the mtnsand the mid coast, but even in those spots it wont get belowthe mid 60s. High clouds and a light SW flow will prevent radcooling, but there could be some patch fog given the high Tds,and probably another round of marine fog/stratus on the midcoast, and maybe W toward Casco Bay.Wednesday will see the approach of the moisture remnants fromBeryl which will move in late and continue through Wed nightinto Thursday. Models have shifted the heaviest rain further N,as it remains focused along the stalled front on the N, butscattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible anywhere Wed into Wednight, and any storms could produce torrential downpours. Atthis point though the best threat for any flooding will be inthe mtns.&&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

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Latest models and ensemble solutions continue to focus on astripe of high QPFS, mainly across northern and perhaps centralareas. In this region, two to four inches of rain are certainlya possibility where localized flooding or flash flooding remainspossible. Less precipitation can be expected at this timefurther to the south, however this will need to be monitoredwith time as small shifts the rainfall axis can be expected asthe atmosphere remains loaded with moisture.Thursday`s forecast will be changeable. Somewhat of a dry slotcrosses through the region during the day as evident by loweringof PWATs with time after some early morning rains. However,models soundings keep surface dew points on the high side onceagain. Therefore, scattered thunderstorms can be expected onceagain, but not nearly as widespread as Wednesday and Wednesdaynight.Very warm and muggy conditions will continue during the periodFriday through the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure offthe Eastern Seaboard continues to pump moisture in the region.Weak short waves crossing through the forecast area will allowfor more scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region.Fog...fog may be persistent during the nighttime periodsespecially Thursday night onwards. Fog will occur both over theinterior valleys as well as the coastline.

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&&.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Short Term...So far the marine layer has KRKD at LIFR and thiswill continue through about 12Z, there may be a few hours of IFRinto mid morning, but this should improve to VFR in SW for therest of the day. Could still see a short period of fog atKHIE/KLEB/KAUG around sunrise. Otherwise expect VFR throughtoday. Fog and stratus more widespread tonight, especially alongthe coast where LIFR is probable rolling in by around midnight,except KRKD, where itll move in by 23Z. Sct TSRA possible thisafternoon, and strong winds are possible in a few of thesestorms. More widespread showers and storms expected on Wed.Long Term...LIFR and IFR conditions expected in widespread showersand thunderstorms Wednesday night along with patchy fog.Conditions improve to just IFR at times in scattered showers andstorms Thursday and through the weekend. Patchy fog willcontinue especially at night.&&.MARINE...Short Term...Fog builds back over the waters over the waterslate today and overnight, and likely remains overnight into Wed.SW flow picks up a bit this afternoon but stays below SCAlevels.Long Term...Winds will generally remain out of the southduring the long range portion of the forecast but stay belowSCA thresholds. Patchy to areas of fog may become persistentover the coastal waters, especially during the nighttime hours.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ010-012-013.MARINE...None.&&$$NEAR TERM...CempaSHORT TERM...CempaLONG TERM...Cannon/Cempa
National Weather Service (2024)
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