David Rosenberg
May 16, 2024 10:42 am ET
With a 26-25 record, Florida is at risk of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Kevin O’Sullivan. The Gators need to win at least two of three games against Georgia this weekend to breathe easy heading into the SEC Tournament, but the Bulldogs are surging and living up to a top-10 ranking.
Both teams have elite power in the middle of the lineup, but Florida will be down a bat with Ty Evans likely out for the rest of the year with a wrist injury. That means Florida will need to lean on its young pitching staff, which has shown more promise in recent weeks but still lacks the experience to be truly confident in.
Neither team played a midweek game, so both bullpens are fully loaded heading into Thursday’s opener. Here is a closer look at the upcoming series between Florida and Georgia.
Projected Starting Lineup
David Rosenberg/Gators Wire
Position | Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | HR | RBI |
Catcher | Luke Heyman | .239 | .355 | .457 | 197 | 35 | 47 | 11 | 35 |
First Base | Jac Caglianone | .418 | .529 | .862 | 196 | 62 | 82 | 28 | 55 |
Second Base | Cade Kurland | .257 | .354 | .470 | 183 | 37 | 47 | 10 | 33 |
Third Base | Dale Thomas | .237 | .377 | .376 | 93 | 13 | 22 | 2 | 17 |
Shortstop | Colby Shelton | .261 | .378 | .588 | 199 | 50 | 52 | 18 | 44 |
Left Field | Tyler Shelnut | .267 | .373 | .556 | 187 | 35 | 50 | 13 | 44 |
Center Field | Michael Robertson | .228 | .290 | .325 | 114 | 19 | 26 | 1 | 14 |
OR | Jaylen Guy | .146 | .344 | .167 | 48 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
Right Field | Hayden Yost | .284 | .400 | .358 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 4 |
Designated Hitter | Brody Donay | .282 | .347 | .582 | 110 | 22 | 31 | 10 | 21 |
With Evans out of the lineup, Hayden Yost is shifting to right field, Tyler Shelnut is moving back to a full-time outfield role in left and Dale Thomas is once again the everyday third baseman.
Probable Starters: Thursday (6 p.m. ET)
David Rosenberg/Gators Wire
TEAM | PLAYER | RECORD | ERA |
Florida | LHP Pierce Coppola | 0-2 | 7.27 |
Georgia | RHP Kolten Smith | 8-2 | 4.72 |
Pierce Coppola continues to improve with every start but the next step is letting him go longer in games. He should get to go about 70 pitches this time around after ramping up over the past few weeks. Against Kentucky, he threw 64 pitches and allowed just one unearned run.
Kolten Smith is a starter-reliever hybrid who is ranked third in the conference in strikeouts during SEC play. He features a fastball that runs up to 95 mph which he mixes with a changeup that’s good against batters on both sides of the plate. His slider can sometimes miss, but no one touches it when he lets it go right, according to D1Baseball’s Joe Healy.
Probable Starters: Friday (6 p.m. ET)
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union
TEAM | PLAYER | RECORD | ERA |
Florida | RHP Liam Peterson | 2-4 | 5.92 |
Georgia | RHP Leighton Finley | 5-1 | 4.45 |
Liam Peterson is coming off his first quality start as a Gator and the goal is to repeat that performance against another top-10 opponent, and arguably the best hitter in the country. The biggest change for Peterson is that he’s learned to limit home runs. After giving up 12 homers in his first seven appearances, Peterson has allowed just one in his last six.
Leighton Finley has been consistent all season, and his 5.11 earned run average against SEC teams isn’t so bad considering he’s the only constant in the weekend rotation for Georgia. Finley’s at his best when his slider is working. The action on it is tighter than other sweeper-style sliders you might see, but that allows him to control the pitch better. His fastball comes in comfortably between 92-95 mph, and a mid-80s changeup can keep him going deep into games.
Probable Starters: Saturday (2 p.m. ET)
Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images
TEAM | PLAYER | RECORD | ERA |
Florida | LHP Jac Caglianone | 5-1 | 4.07 |
Georgia | TBA | — | — |
It’s nice that Florida has Jac Caglianone to rely on to close out the season, but Florida could blow the series before he even gets on the mound. We know what to expect with Caglianone. A mid-to-high-90s fastball, a big sweeping slider and a changeup that fools batters on both sides. As long as Florida scores a few runs, Saturday should be a win.
Georgia hasn’t announced a starter for Saturday’s game, giving Florida even more of the upper hand.
Other Players to Watch
Syndication: Gator Sports
All eyes will be on Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon (.454/.567/1.082, 34 HR) this weekend as the two best hitters in baseball square off. Condon has already broken Caglianone’s modern-era record of 33 home runs in a season. It would only be fitting for him to extend that record off Cags, right?
There’s also Corey Collins to worry about. The senior first baseman is batting .367 with a 1.398 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. His 16 home runs don’t seem like much next to Caglianone and Condon, but Collins has the second-most pop in the lineup.
Series History
OVERALL | 193-115-2 |
HOME | 102-45-1 |
ROAD | 86-64-1 |
NEUTRAL | 5-6 |
How to Watch
THURSDAY (6 p.m. ET)
- Watch: SEC Network+
- Listen: ESPN 98.1FM/850AM WRUF
- Live Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
FRIDAY (1 p.m. ET)
- Watch: SEC Network+
- Listen: ESPN 98.1FM/850AM WRUF
- Live Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
SATURDAY (2 p.m. ET)
- Watch: SEC Network+
- Listen: ESPN 98.1FM/850AM WRUF
- Live Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
Prediction
Game 1: Florida 9, Georgia 8
Game 2: Florida 7, Georgia 3
Game 3: Florida 5, Georgia 1
There is very little evidence to support a Florida sweep here, but it’s not out of the question if the Gators play to their full potential. Putting it all together is not exactly what the 2024 Florida baseball team does, but it’s never a bad time to kick poor habits. Florida needs two here to stay alive, but three gives the team some momentum heading into Hoover.
Prediction: Florida sweeps and gets stronger with each game.
Read more
Florida’s Jac Caglianone named a John Olerud Award semifinalist
Florida baseball enters final regular season series just outside RPI top 25
Taking a look at the Week 13 D1Baseball rankings
SEC dominating top 25 in latest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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